B2 · Module 06 · Class 22 — Reading the Future
Narrative Scene
Brian is back in London after the Munich event. The Germany pipeline is strong — Klaus Brandt's committee expressed serious interest, and three more prospects have requested formal proposals. Now Brian needs to turn that momentum into numbers.
Priya has modelled Germany ARR projections for Year 1 and Year 2 based on assumptions around conversion rate, average deal size, and market penetration. The board has called a working session to stress-test the model before it goes into the Q2 investor update.
Priya hands Brian the draft projection pack. He reads it carefully. "The numbers look strong," he says. "The question is whether Helena will accept the assumptions."
Forecasting Verbs and Structures
Business English uses a specific set of verbs to talk about the future in formal and semi-formal contexts. These verbs carry different degrees of confidence and are used in different document types.
Verb / structure | Degree of confidence / typical context |
project (that) / be projected to | High — used in financial models and investor documents |
forecast (that) / be forecast to | High — often data-driven; used by analysts and finance teams |
anticipate (that) / be anticipated to | Medium-high — implies informed expectation |
expect (that) / be expected to | Medium — common in general business writing |
estimate (that) / be estimated to | Medium — used when precision is limited; signals approximation |
envisage / envisage that | Medium — forward-looking vision; common in strategy documents |
it is likely / unlikely that | Variable — plain probability statement |
indicate / suggest (data as subject) | Neutral — lets data speak: "The figures suggest..." |
Sentence Patterns
Active (company or person as subject):
• We project ARR growth of 40% in Year 1.
• Meridian anticipates closing three enterprise deals by Q3.
• The team estimates a conversion rate of 15% for the German market.
Passive (number or outcome as subject — preferred in formal documents):
• ARR growth is projected to reach GBP 2.4M by end of Year 1.
• Three enterprise deals are anticipated to close by Q3.
• Conversion is estimated at 15% for the initial phase.
Data as subject (distancing — writer presents themselves as reporter of evidence):
• The pipeline data suggest a conversion rate of 12–18%.
• Current figures indicate that market penetration will accelerate in Q3.
• Early-stage signals point to a higher average deal size than modelled.
2. Directional Trajectory Phrases
When describing a trend that is heading towards a future outcome, use these constructions. They are more precise than simply saying "will be" and more confident than "might be".
Expression | Meaning / Use | Example in context |
on track to | progressing as planned toward a goal | Germany ARR is on track to exceed GBP 1.8M by year-end. |
set to | strongly positioned for a future outcome | The Munich pipeline is set to deliver four signed deals in Q3. |
poised to | in a strong position, ready to move | Meridian is poised to become the market leader in DACH SaaS partnerships. |
on course for | following a path toward a target | We are on course for a 35% uplift in average contract value. |
well placed to | has the capability / conditions to achieve | Brian is well placed to close the KMT deal given the Munich relationship. |
heading for | moving toward — neutral to slightly cautious | The team is heading for a Q2 overshoot if conversion rates hold. |
expected to peak at | will reach maximum value at a specific point | Onboarding costs are expected to peak at GBP 120k in Month 4. |
3. Expressing Confidence in Projections
Business projections are rarely certain. Speakers and writers use modal verbs and adverbial hedges to signal exactly how confident they are in a number or scenario.
Confidence Scale — Modal Verbs
Confidence level | Modal structure + example |
Very high (near certain) | will — "ARR will exceed GBP 2M if conversion holds at 15%." |
High | should — "We should close three deals by Q3 based on current pipeline." |
Medium | would / would expect to — "I would expect margins to improve in Year 2." |
Medium-low | may / might — "The deal may slip to Q4 if procurement timelines extend." |
Low / speculative | could — "We could see ARR of GBP 3M if enterprise adoption accelerates." |
Adverbial Confidence Markers
Adverb / phrase | Position and use |
conservatively | before or after verb — "We have modelled this conservatively." |
realistically | sentence adverb — "Realistically, Year 1 ARR will land between 1.6 and 2.1." |
prudently | signals deliberate caution — "We have prudently assumed a 12% conversion." |
in the base case | introduces central scenario — "In the base case, margin is 62%." |
under our central assumptions | names the scenario — "Under our central assumptions, Year 2 ARR doubles." |
in an upside scenario | names optimistic variant — "In an upside scenario, three extra deals close." |
in a downside scenario | names cautious variant — "In a downside scenario, conversion drops to 9%." |
subject to | signals condition — "These projections are subject to FX assumptions." |
Germany ARR Projection Briefing Note (Extract)
Priya has sent this briefing note to Brian and James ahead of the board session. Read it and answer the questions below.
TO: Brian Okafor, James Whitfield FROM: Priya Kapoor DATE: 7 May 2026 RE: Germany Market Entry — ARR Projection Briefing
This note summarises the key inputs and assumptions underlying the Germany ARR model ahead of tomorrow's working session.
BASE CASE — YEAR 1
Qualified pipeline as of 7 May: GBP 9.4M (TCV across 22 prospects) Estimated conversion rate: 14% (conservatively modelled; UK Year 1 was 17%) Assumed average deal size: GBP 42,000 ARR Projected closed deals (Year 1): 6–7 Base-case Year 1 ARR: GBP 252,000–294,000 (annualised)
Note: KMT Logistics alone represents GBP 85,000 ARR if confirmed at current scope. KMT is excluded from the base case and modelled separately as an upside scenario.
BASE CASE — YEAR 2
Conversion improvement assumption: +3pp (to 17%), based on brand recognition and referral pipeline from Year 1 customers. Pipeline growth assumption: +60% (expansion of Munich and Frankfurt networks). Projected Year 2 ARR (cumulative): GBP 1.6M–1.9M.
KEY RISKS
1. FX exposure: projections assume EUR/GBP at 1.18. A 5% move reduces ARR by ~GBP 14k. 2. Procurement cycle length: DACH enterprise procurement averages 6–9 months. One deal slipping from Q3 to Q4 reduces Year 1 ARR by ~GBP 42k. 3. KMT dependency: if KMT is the only large deal, Year 2 growth is top-heavy.
RECOMMENDATION
I recommend presenting the base case to the board and flagging KMT as an upside. We should not present the upside as the central scenario — Helena will push back.
Happy to run sensitivity tables during the session if needed. Priya |
Comprehension Questions
• What is the base-case Year 1 ARR projection and what are the two key variables driving it?
• Why has Priya excluded KMT Logistics from the base case?
Practice Exercises
3 questionsNew exercises to reinforce what you learned. Different from the lesson material.
Germany ARR is ___ to reach GBP 1.8M by end of Year 1. (project / set / expect)
Under central assumptions, conversion ___ improve to 17% in Year 2. (should / will / may)
We have ___ assumed a 14% conversion rate to account for DACH procurement delays. (conservatively / prudently / realistically)
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