B2 · Module 03 · Class 10 — How Certain Are You?

Modal

Epistemic meaning

Example

must

logical deduction — only reasonable conclusion

"The flag must have reached the team lead — it was on the shared log."

will

confident prediction or strong inference

"This will have been an oversight in the handover process."

should

reasonable expectation based on procedure

"The escalation should have triggered automatically."

may

real possibility — writer considers it likely

"The delay may have been avoidable with earlier intervention."

might

weaker possibility — writer is less committed

"The resourcing decision might have been taken without full visibility."

could

theoretical possibility — writer is open, not committed

"A communication gap could account for the missing escalation."

Semi-modal

Example

appear to

"The delay appears to have originated from a resourcing gap."

seem to

"The protocol seems to have been applied inconsistently."

tend to

"These escalation failures tend to occur during contractor transitions."

be likely to

"The review is likely to confirm the timeline we have outlined."

be bound to

"There will bound to be questions about the sign-off process."

be expected to

"The corrected delivery is expected to be confirmed by Friday."

Adverb

Certainty level

Example

certainly

very high — near certainty

"This certainly falls within our standard remediation process."

evidently

high — observable or on record

"The flag was evidently not passed to the steering committee."

presumably

moderate — reasonable assumption

"The contractor presumably handed over before leaving."

probably

moderate — more likely than not

"This probably won't affect the Q2 pipeline significantly."

apparently

reported — based on what others say

"Apparently, the version control issue had been flagged internally."

arguably

contested — reasonable but debatable

"This is arguably the most significant process failure this quarter."

conceivably

low — remote but not impossible

"A more rigorous mid-point review could conceivably have caught this."

Pattern: According to [source], [subject] may / appear to / is likely to + [verb phrase]

"According to the post-mortem, the resourcing shortfall may have begun as early as January."

"Based on the governance log, the flag appears to have been filed correctly — the failure was in escalation."

"As the review indicates, the timeline will likely need to be revised."

"In line with the preliminary findings, the delay is probably attributable to a single process gap."

Register comparison — Presenting an uncertain finding at four levels

● Level 1 — Board presentation (formal, hedged, precise):

   "Based on the preliminary findings, the resourcing gap may have originated in early February.

   This appears to have coincided with the contractor departure. The review will establish

   whether the escalation failure was systemic or isolated."

● Level 2 — Executive team briefing:

   "From what we can see, the staffing problem probably started around February. It looks like

   the flag that was raised didn't get through to the right people. We'll know more once

   the governance review is complete."

● Level 3 — Team discussion:

   "Sounds like the contractor left and things fell through the cracks. We think it started

   in February but we're still checking."

● Quick message:

   "February-ish. Still figuring out exactly what happened."

Term

Meaning

Example in context

to corroborate

to confirm or support a claim with evidence

"The review will corroborate our initial assessment."

preliminary

early, before full information is available

"These are preliminary findings — not final conclusions."

indicative

suggesting but not proving a conclusion

"The data is indicative of a process gap, not negligence."

inconclusive

not leading to a clear conclusion

"The initial investigation was inconclusive on the root cause."

to substantiate

to provide evidence to support a claim

"We are working to substantiate the timeline."

to infer

to draw a conclusion from available evidence

"From the governance log, one can infer the flag was filed on time."

tentative

not final; open to revision

"This is a tentative timeline — subject to review."

to hedge

to express uncertainty; to avoid full commitment

"The report hedges on the question of individual accountability."

conjecture

an opinion based on incomplete information

"At this stage, attributing individual blame would be conjecture."

verifiable

able to be checked or confirmed as true

"The dates in the governance log are fully verifiable."

BOARD PRESENTATION — SPEAKING NOTES | Brian Okafor

Emergency Session | 26 March 2026

Q1: "When exactly did the problem start?"

The resourcing gap appears to have emerged during the week of 3 February,

following the departure of a senior contractor. I should note that this

date is based on the project governance log and has not yet been

independently verified. The review will corroborate or revise this.

"Evidently the gap was not caught at the mid-point review on 17 February.

That meeting certainly took place — it is on record — but the resourcing

risk apparently was not tabled as an agenda item."

Q2: "Could this have been prevented?"

"Based on the preliminary findings, this could arguably have been

prevented had the flag been escalated in the required timeframe. Whether

it would have been is harder to say — the replacement contractor was

probably not available at short notice regardless."

"I would not say this was inevitable. Nor would I say it was straightforwardly

avoidable. The honest answer is: probably yes, with better process compliance."

Q3: "Who is responsible?"

"At this stage, attributing individual responsibility would be conjecture.

What we can say is that the escalation protocol was evidently not followed.

Whether that reflects individual failure, unclear process, or a combination

of both is precisely what the governance review will establish.",

"I am confident the review will give us a verifiable answer within ten days."